France’s carbon budget: progress and challenges

byInès Ferrari/03/06/2024 18:16

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France has managed to stick to its carbon budget for the period 2019-2023, according to the annual report published by Citepa, the independent body responsible for France’s carbon pollution inventory. However, the country has encountered difficulties in reducing emissions from transport, which remains the leading emitting sector. In this article, we look at the report’s findings, the sectors that have succeeded in reducing their emissions and those that have failed, and the challenges ahead for France in its transition to a low-carbon economy.

CO2 emissions down, but targets still not met

The energy sector took first place on the podium, thanks to an increase in decarbonized electricity production, the return of strong nuclear power generation, and a rise in hydroelectric, wind and solar power production. Emissions from the residential tertiary sector have also fallen, thanks to sober behavior on the part of households and businesses, a reduced need for heating thanks to the weather, and ongoing thermal renovations. However, these results fall far short of our targets. For industry, the decline in emissions is mainly due to production cuts, in addition to ongoing decarbonization efforts.

The main area of concern remains transport, the largest emitting sector. A lasting decline and the effect of electrification are not yet visible, despite a resumption of the decline of around 3% in 2023, fuelled by fuel price rises and the decline of diesel. In the air transport sector, emissions soared year-on-year, both on domestic flights (up 21%, above the pre-Ovid level) and on international flights (up nearly 30%). Emissions only include domestic activities, not those linked to imports.

CO2 absorption by forests and soils, a crucial challenge for France

To assess France’s climate trajectory in relation to the Paris Agreement, and its objective of limiting global warming to 1.5°C, we still need to take into account CO2 absorption by forests, grasslands and peatlands on French soil. In 2022, these natural carbon sinks captured only 16.9 MtCO2e instead of the 41 million predicted on average by the Observatoire climat-énergie. A recurring deficit since 2015 linked to droughts, reinforced by climate change, fires and diseases, which have increased tree mortality.

The National Low Carbon Strategy, a roadmap for a successful transition

After failing to meet its first carbon budget (2015-2018) and revising its ambitions downwards in 2019, France is finally below the target of 422 MtCO2e/year, set by its roadmap, called the National Low Carbon Strategy. (SNBC). Its emissions are now -29% below 1990 levels. By 2030, it must meet the European target of -55%. A number of environmental NGOs are taking legal action, known as the “Case of the Century”, to force the French government to make up for lost time.

The challenges of ecological transition in France: what prospects for the future?

France still faces many challenges in meeting its climate objectives. Firstly, it needs to accelerate the transition to renewable energies and reduce its dependence on fossil fuels. Secondly, it must tackle transport emissions, particularly those from the air sector, by encouraging more sustainable alternatives such as rail. Finally, it must protect and restore its natural carbon sinks, such as forests, grasslands and peatlands, to increase their capacity to absorb CO2.

France has made progress in reducing its carbon emissions, but there is still work to be done to achieve its climate targets. By meeting these challenges, it can not only contribute to the fight against climate change, but also improve air quality, create jobs and stimulate economic growth. By working together, we can all contribute to a more sustainable and prosperous future.

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France’s carbon budget: progress and challenges

CO2 emissions down, but targets still not met

CO2 absorption by forests and soils, a crucial challenge for France

The National Low Carbon Strategy, a roadmap for a successful transition

The challenges of ecological transition in France: what prospects for the future?

Panel Circularity: Building a profound paradigm shift